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Team: Njabulo Ncube, Elena Kulinskaya and Nicholas Steel

Project: Type II Diabetes and its impact on morbidity and longevity

Working paper 1: Review of the Impact of Diabetes Mellitus 2 on Longevity and Morbidity Risk by Njabulo Ncube

Longevity has become an interest topic in both developing and developed countries despite their economic differences. It has been on the increase for the past decades. However, from 2010 the increase in life expectancy at birth has slowed down in several countries including the UK. In the same period, UK’s  life expectancies at 65 years and 85 years have come to a near halt or are decreasing due to the increase in the number of deaths particularly in the old age population (ONS, 2017) . This may be attributed to individuals in the old age population succumbing to chronic diseases. Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is of particular interest as it became one of the top six causes-of-death in 2015, globally; yet it was not among the top ten causes-of-death in the past decades (WHO, 2017). However, it has been among the top six causes-of-morbidity in the past (WHO, 2017). About 90% DM patients are living with DM Type II (DM II) and hence it is important to model the impact of DM II on morbidity and longevity. It is with such a background that statistical and actuarial models should be developed to help governments and insurance businesses in designing relevant and reliable products for their people. In pursuit of this, the research uses the THIN Database (UK).

1.IFoA (2017), Longevity: Is the tide turning?, Longevity Bulletin Issue 10: July 2017, IFoA
2.ONS (2017), Daily Death Occurrences by All Causes and Diabetes Mellitus ICD; Online: www.ons.gov.uk/searchdata?q=Daily+death+occurrences+by+all+causes+and+DM+mellitus+ICD+10+E10+to+E14%2C+England+and+Wales%2C+2001+to+2016&sortBy\=relevance, Accessed: 13 Nov. 2017
3. WHO (2017), Fact Sheets 310 and 312; Online: www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets , Accessed: 3 Nov. 2017
4. PHE (2016), Technical document for the diabetes prevalence model for England 2016, Public Health England